STAR: Fund managers turn defensive

Today STAR has published an article which carries five fund managers and heads of research stock picks for 2008:


One of them is my idol: Mr Tan Teng Boo. Just wondering why is he still keep recommending Tong Herr as one of the top picks. Based on London Metal Exchange nickel price graph, nickel price has been heading south since Mar'08.

We shall review each of their performance after one-year from now :-)

Star: Fund managers turn defensive

危险驾驶 vs 小心驾驶

昨晚放工回家时差点就遇上了车祸. 正当我在Fast Lane快速行驶时, 忽然路中的一辆车亮起方向灯就即刻转右驶入我的车道. 我立刻猛按车笛, 踩煞车器! 幸好那司机及时移向左边少许, 而我就在轮胎打滑, 非常近距离的情况下从那车只的右边驶过... (那司机是个老头)

事发后, 心里有些余悸, 脑里不断想着许多事情. 生命实在是太脆弱, 有时可能因为别人的疏忽, 就这样去了. 也想起了我同事所形容的: 在印尼, 人命伤亡就像"Katak Mati" - 太多了, 所以没有价值.

希望大家爱惜生命, 小心驾驶, 保护自己也保护大家.

驾车时要不断注意四周的车辆, 别随便开快车, 也不胡乱割车.

MidValley 遇到老千

近来要到MV去的朋友要小心, "中国老千"已经在那里开始干案, 我就差一点上了当. 首先一个肥胖的中国男人 (叫陈军, 应该是假名) 会先叫你留步, 再向你表明他远从中国到这里做生意, 身上现款用完了, 提款卡被提款机给吞了, 生意伙伴又到了国外, 要向你借些钱以吃晚餐和住宿酒店, 还会给张名片证明"身份". 如果你还是不相信, 他又会打电话叫他的同伙 - 另一个女生来. 那女的基本上会重复他之前所说的 (无非是要说服你).

这两个"中国老千"会说很多狗屁话: 什么大家是华人要帮忙; 不会为了几百块把中国人的脸给丢了; 曾经是个军人很讲信用; 现在帮他下次在中国有他照应...

为什么很肯定他们是老千呢? 因为:
1. 既然是出国做生意, 一定会携带足够的现款或信用卡
2. 既然有展览, 肯定有本地的伙伴可以帮忙
3. 不允许我打电话查询 - 如果是真的, 何必心虚
4. 在我决定不理睬他们之后, 那女的还把给我的名片给抢回

对于这两个"中国老千", 我想说声: 去你的乌龟王X旦, 你妈没教你礼仪廉耻, 真的是丢尽华人的面光. 再见到你们, 我就带你们去警察局 (MV里有警察局).

想不到这些老千, 在这越来越冷漠自私的社会里, 连那仅存的怜悯之心也要加以利用! 真的是令人气愤! 我鄙视他们!!!

新电话 - SE K770/W580

两年前买的Panasonic VS2终于退休了. 我和大虾头最近一起换了新电话. 我换了SE K770而她则拿了SE W580. 这里要介绍的是一间在PJ牛车水的电话铺, 位置在Starbucks对面的, 专卖AP机, 价钱还便宜过金河那里. 先说明我和那店毫无瓜葛, 只是觉得有好地方就该介绍...

有型的K770

可爱的W580

P/S: 我的猪朋Mr Chet也换了咖啡色的K770

Lessons from Warren Buffett’s guru

Personal Investing: By OOI KOK HWA

Phillip Fisher says he doesn't want a lot of good investments but a few good outstanding ones.

Q: What can we learn from Philip Fisher?

Philip A. Fisher, one of Warren Buffett’s investment gurus, is known for his philosophy on the qualitative aspects of selecting a good company for investment. Buffett learned qualitative analysis from him.

Fisher got his early education at Stanford Business School. He joined an independent San Francisco bank as a securities analyst in 1928, and founded Fisher & Co, an investment counselling business, in 1931.

According to his book entitled Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, one of the most important investment philosophies from Fisher is Scuttlebutt, which he also calls “the business grapevine”, in investing.

Scuttlebutt is the use of the business grapevine to analyse a company. We can obtain the information from customers, employees, suppliers, academics, trade association officers, industry observers, etc. This information is crucial in determining the character of its managers and the potential of the company.

A good company should exhibit unquestionable management integrity, own highly competitive products, be in a healthy financial position, have good cost control and be effective in its research programme.

According to Fisher, even though it is hard to know quality of management, a good management team should possess the ability to carry out day-to-day tasks efficiently and have good long-term planning. The management should also have high integrity and maintain good labour, personal and executive relations.

Fisher is a believer of growth investing. We need to select stocks that have great potential to grow their businesses. It will be a waste of time to hold on to stocks that have no growth potential. He believes that we can get capital gains by buying into these companies as their stock prices would go up in line with the increase in their intrinsic value.

It requires extensive research before you can get one. Fisher said: “I don’t want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.” These companies can be bought at high historic price earnings ratio (PER) because there is a possibility that their stock price is reflecting good news you don’t know about yet.

The growth companies should demonstrate strong and well-directed research capabilities. These companies should also exhibit an above-average sales organisation. Besides, they need to have a sustainable profit margin and good return on capital. Normally, these companies are the market leaders in the industry and have the advantages of scale.

A consistent and predictable dividend policy will provide the minimum returns to investors. Although high dividends are good for investors, to maintain business growth, high growth companies need to retain a certain level of profits for future expansion.

If a company is paying dividends with little retained earnings, it will cause lower reinvestment, which will affect its long-term growth. As mentioned earlier, the main returns to an investor is capital gain. He believes that buying into high growth companies will provide the capital gain.

When to sell

Fisher believes in long-term investment. According to him, the most important thing is to select the right stocks. “If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never,” he said. However, if we select the wrong stocks, we need to sell.

We need to admit that we have made mistakes in our calculation. This attitude is important as not many retailers have the courage to admit their mistakes. Furthermore, we should not expect to be right all the time. We should be aware that we can make mistakes and we will make mistakes in our analysis, but more importantly, we need to learn from our mistakes.

Fisher said: “The chief difference between a fool and a wise man is that the wise man learns from his mistakes, while the fool never does.”

Fisher will only call a sell on a stock when the company or industry has changed and the stock no longer qualifies as a growth stock or a better prospect is available elsewhere. He will not sell a stock just because a stock appears to be selling for a significantly above average PER or because the stock price has increased.

He believes that most investors always make mistakes by selling their stocks with the hope of buying them back at lower prices. In most instances, the investors miss the stock when it recovers.

普吉岛旅游照(23-26 Oct 2007)

虽然家乡是米都, 却从来没有到过泰国的我总于在去年到了普吉岛. 曾经遭受海啸袭击的普吉岛如今已完全恢复, 绝对适合喜欢大自然的朋友. 和吴哥一样, 最适合自助旅行不过了.

幻多奇主题乐园

到此一游

团体照

鱼儿在脚下游

一起来喂鱼

跳

猴子吃蕉

傍晚街景

餐馆里

海鲜

和世界小姐和照

艺术

美女

* 此美女非真女, 要找小姐的在那里可要小心...

吴哥旅游照(11-14 Jun 2007)

这里放的是去年六月到吴哥(SiamReap)旅游的照片. 最著名的旅游景点就是吴哥窟. 在这里载帖一些有关吴哥窟的资料:

相对于柬埔寨人来说, 吴哥窟不似是人间的制作, 而是一个神话传说. 按传统的说法, 居住于 Meru 山上的 Indra 神, 赐予人性的生命给祂的儿子Ketomealea, 让祂能保护佛教, 及维持其王国的光荣. 一个晚上, Indra 神 派遣 Meatolei 神到世上, 带回Ketomealea , 乘祂坐着马车前往拜访 33 神的天堂 ( Heaven of the 33 Gods ). 于停留时, Indra 神教授了 Ketomelea 10 种神圣的使命, 并连续七天, 于花园内, 替 Koetomelea 每天洗浸香浴七次. 再邀请 7 位神圣的 Brahmans 为祂念诵七咒语, 及洒泼神水, 祝福祂能享受百岁长寿. 礼成后, 他们乘坐马车, 飞到 Indra 神的宫殿. 此后 Ketomealea 便被选定为建造人世间的使者 . 天上的建筑师并建成了吴哥窟. Ketomealea 看都吴哥窟的宏伟建筑, 感到非常高兴. 并要求Pisnouka 同样多建造几处像吴哥窟的地方. 直至 Ketomealea 受封为此社稷的国王时, Indra 神再重临大地, 向其儿子祝福, 并赐祂为 " Aritha-polape a-hano " ( 即消灭敌人的强者 ). Ketomealea 并将祂的国土命名为 Kampuja, 即是现在的Cambodia 柬埔寨. 吴哥窟为于柬埔寨的西北面的 Siam Reap ( 暹粒 ), 距离泰国边境约 150 公里. 吴哥窟旳高棉人与泰国的暹罗人常常发生战事纠纷. Siam Reap 是平服暹罗的意思.

乘坐木船到Tonlé Sap

著名的吴哥窟

吴哥窟的顶端

团体照

老树盘根

无名树

和照

自助旅行到吴哥是十分简单的. 住宿可以通过网络预定, 导游也可以(临时)通过酒店预订, 价钱大同小异. 通常交易都是以美元计算. 信用卡不普遍. 四天三日游两人费用大约在马币一千以内.

Malaysian Citizenship or PR?

I was disappointed again when reading through these two pieces of news last Tuesday. Though they were just verbal statement/pleading from the people, government should take a serious check whether such double-standard does exist in its policy.

TheStar dated 26 Feb 2008, Page N44. (Click to enlarge)

The writer (Malaysian) is pleading the government to grant his parents a PR status.

Jakarta Post dated 26 Feb 2008, Headlines Page 2. (Click to enlarge)

The interviewee (Indonesian) claimed that by staying in Malaysia for over 5 years, one can apply for Malaysian citizenship and get a Blue IC.

Are we keeping pace with FDIs?

MALAYSIA’S reliance on foreign direct investment (FDI) is well noted. Historically, it was FDIs that laid the backbone of the Malaysian economy – under British imperialism, plantation (rubber and palm oil) and mining (tin, petroleum) and after independence, the manufacturing sector (electrical and electronics).

FDI has played an important role in financing long-term economic growth in Malaysia. However, since the financial crisis of 1997/98, the changes in Malaysia’s FDI stock have been a cause for concern, especially when compared to its competitors.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) reports that global FDI stock has risen from US$551bil to US$12 trillion since 1980, with most of the FDI concentrated in developed countries. In 2006, 70% of FDI stock was located in developed countries while developing countries accounted for only 26%.

The lion’s share of the FDI stock in developing countries was in the East Asian economies. Together, they accounted for 38% of FDI to developing countries.

Malaysia cannot emulate China, India, or Vietnam but should emulate Singapore and Hong Kong given similar socio-economic conditions.

FDI stock in China increased from US$1.1bil in 1980 to US$293bil in 2006, with a significant jump recorded since the 1990s. If the FDI stock in Hong Kong, the gateway to China, was included, the performance would be all the more startling.

FDI stock in Hong Kong alone increased from US$21bil in 1980 to US$769bil in 2006. This is truly remarkable, as Hong Kong does not offer any incentives for FDI compared to other developing economies. India, another awakening giant, too has been recording tremendous growth in FDI stock. In 1980, FDI stock in India was only US$452mil. This grew to US$51bil in 2006.

In Asean, the star performers are Singapore and Vietnam. FDI stock in Singapore rose from US$5bil in 1980 to a staggering US$210bil in 2006. As for Vietnam, FDI stock increased from US$1bil in 1980 to US$33bil in 2006. This was remarkable considering that Vietnam was at war until 1975 and faced economic embargo from the US until 1994.

Malaysia started like Singapore with an FDI stock of US$5bil in 1980. In 2006, its FDI stock stood at only US$53bil, which paled in comparison with Singapore’s US$210bil. Furthermore, for the years 2001 to 2005, FDI stock fell lower than the US$53bil recorded in 2000. This is distressing as Malaysia has all the prerequisites as a favoured FDI destination and provides generous incentives to foreign investors.

There are several reasons why Malaysia is failing to attract and retain FDI in comparison to the frontrunners, especially Singapore and Hong Kong. The main problem has much to do with institutions.

In the World Bank's Doing Business 2007 Report, which measured “the ease of doing business,” Singapore was at the top while Hong Kong ranked fifth. Malaysia was only ranked 25th. It takes 11 days to start a business in Singapore and Hong Kong and 30 days in Malaysia, while addressing licensing issues in Malaysia takes 281days compared to 129 in Singapore and 160 in Hong Kong.

The World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report and the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook provide similar findings on institutional challenges in Malaysia.

Malaysia cannot emulate China, India, or Vietnam but should emulate Singapore and Hong Kong given similar socio-economic conditions. Lessons from Singapore and Hong Kong call for a return to meritocracy in the Malaysian civil service and an arm's length relationship between politicians and civil servants.

Extracted from TheStar

香港最新电影 - 淫间道

今天收到了这香港最新电影<< 淫间道 >>的电影海报, 有够搞笑!

Just What Is An Islamic Car?

Still remember the news about Proton wants to produce "Islamic" cars? A lot of people must be pondering what "trick" is Proton trying to play. After the news broke out for about two weeks, we have comments given by Dr Syed Ali Tawfik al-Attas, Director General of Institut Kefahaman Islamic Malaysia (IKIM).

I extracted a few paragraphs of Dr Syed's view to share with you:

The cars are apparently “expected to have Islamic features such as the compass kiblat reading and compartments for keeping the Quran and scarves.” A complete perusal of the article betrays the fact that the focus was not on making a car “Islamic”, but rather on using the term “Islamic” as an advertising tool purely for economic gain.

My concern here is that Islam and all its associated elements – namely, Islamic, Islamisation and so on – are being corrupted by those who know not, and know not they know not (la yadri wa la yadri annahu la yadri). Islam is not a religion for the feeble-minded, nor is it the handmaiden of politics or a cliché (cogankata) for advertising, business and economics.

The fact that the Muslim world today suffers politically, economically and intellectually is due in large part to the Muslims, and not Islam.

In my opinion, far from ennobling the Muslims and the Muslim world, such proposals like an “Islamic car” bring shame, and invite unnecessary ridicule.


Hello, Datuk Syed Zainal Abidin, did you hear that?
* Proton has reached a new low today 12.30pm @ RM3.66

No Foreign Partner For Proton

Look at what our respected minister said.

I guess they have over-estimated what "Persona" can do for Proton. A few months of good sales do not really mean "TURNAROUND". A simple comparison with Toyota, GM, Hyundai will tell you that our Proton does not have the capability to compete at all. Are they planning to sell the same model for the next 10-20 years under government protection?!


After the news was published, Proton share price tumbled RM0.92 or 18% - approximately RM505mil capitalization vanished in one day!!! Well well, market seems do not agree with the decision. Wanna re-consider the alliance? Better do so!

Food Foundry

不久前和大虾头到SS17的Food Foundry去品尝著名的Mille Crepe - 一种由大约20薄层法国绉层组成的法国点心. 它的味道十分香滑可口, 有别于一般甜腻的蛋糕. 加上Food Foundry的环境清幽, 最适合和朋友欢聚不过了. 首推Vanilla Mille Crepe, 一块蛋糕的售价介于RM8-9, 还算合理.

Food Foundry
地址: SS17 / Bangsar

Vanilla Mille Crepe (Yummy~)

生日礼物 - Fuji F40fd

今年的生日大虾头送了我一架Fuji F40fd. 大虾头知道我一直都想要一架新的相机, 但却因舍不得手上的Kodak DX7630而无法下手, 所以她决定"破费"买架给我. 很高兴因为从此以后可以告别在夜晚拍照模糊的困境. 在这里要感谢她!

Fuji F40fd 是续经典F30之后的超级夜光(傻瓜)相机, 在普吉岛之旅它可显尽威风, 无论在夜景或昏暗室内它都应付自如, 效果十分满意.

我的新相机-Fuji F40fd

劳苦功高的DX7630

国家图书馆

在大虾头的良好熏染之下, 我决定今天到国家图书馆去一游. 说起来瞒惭愧, 吃了这么大才第一次踏入自己国家的图书馆. 比起邻国的图书馆, 我国的面积大了许多, 但藏书量却普通而已, 周末的人也零零星星, 可能是本地比较流行"卖芢饼", 而不流行读书吧!


不论如何, 好书还是有的. 我一口气就借了3本:
1. Making Management Communication Persuasive
2. Financial Derivatives Markets & Applications in Malaysia
3. Inside the International Financial Futures and Options Markets

希望读后能提升自己的学问和说话技巧.

有兴趣的欢迎到国家图书馆来, 支持一下政府的号召, 塑造一个良好的读书风气. 国家图书馆坐落在Jalan Tun Razak, 在Istana Budaya不远. 会员费只是区区RM1而已, 便宜过邻国许多 - 国人实在是没有理由不支持!

Bursa Pursuit Begins Today

Heard of Bursa Pursuit? It is an online virtual investment game organized by Bursa with the aim to encourage people to learn share investing. The game starts today. Registration is free and there are over RM500,000 worth of prizes to be won!


So, give it a try! Who knows you would be the one winning the cash prize away.

* Started the game today, with a RM3k plus profit, ranked 268.

MARCH FOR JUSTICE

JeffOoi has a very comprehensive coverage on the "March For Justice". It is a peaceful demonstration organised by Malaysia's Bar Council today (26 Sep 2007). I hope this will serve as a wake-up call to the government and all the Malaysian to review and clean up the judiciary.

SUPPORT! SUPPORT! SUPPORT!!!


Photos are taken from JeffOoi, click for more.

家里的花

妈妈是个标准的园丁, 只有她才有那种非凡的耐心去照顾家里的花花草草. 这一次回家, 特别为她的 ”作品” 拍几张照片, 放上网让大家欣赏.

Donut Factory

最近到新加坡公干, 很幸运的有空闲让我得以去买Donut Factory 来试试. DF 真的是叫新加坡人为之疯狂, 即使是周日的工作时间也得排上20-30分钟. 虽然辛苦, 但绝对值得一试. 一个SGD1.20, 买多有折.

首推: Double Chocolate, White Strawberry Heart, Hazelnut Milk Chocolate.

买了两盒, 一盒带回KL

忍不住, 先吃了一个...

带回去KL的Donut

Donut Factory
Visit Singaprore – Donut Factory